Nokia is a startup

  • Not really. Nokia wishes it were a startup, what they have is far harder to fix. Startups are usually trying to construct a platform in some capacity (eg: releasing as early as possible and making something someone wants as a stronghold to expand from and take over the world) before they run out of cash.

    Nokia has legacy junk (products, technology, software, patents, brand perception) all of which is declining in value. Nokia is still profitable - for now.

    The idea that Nokia will be able to change, is, IMHO, hilarious. Most leaders can assess why a company is dying, but understanding how to fix it - is exceptionally hard. His memo states the same advice any idiot would tell you (why yes, we should focus on something and crush it) but what?

    It took Nokia over 3 years to realise this? How long will it take to resolve it? A decade?

    Nokia will never convince stakeholders (being a public company and having 130,000 employees) to scrap products that generate billions of dollars - even if it is in decline. It's like asking news orgs to stop printing newspapers.

    this is why big companies die to startups

    You probably think you can continue your mediocre efforts and products and also do something new and innovative, but when you put it like I just did - it sounds impossible. It is.

    I could go out and raise $10M and do a better job at doing what Nokia wants to become, than Nokia itself. True story.

  • In a sense, yes. They have a 98% chance of failing in the next two years ;-)

    (I am not sure what the number is for the US or Finland, but in Brazil, this was the death rate for commercial partnerships in their first two years)

  • They were in similar situation in 90s when they decided to sell their PC, TV, and cable divisions etc. and bet everything on mobile.

  • This reminds me of how the Atlantic turned a profit:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/media/13atlantic....

  • And Nokia seems to be gambling like a startup. If the Atom based smartphone doesn't work out well, they may be wiped out of the smartphone market altogether. A MeeGo phone with a powerful ARM processor (OMPA4/Tegra2) may have been a safer bet.