Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

  • The unemployment rate is not a good metric. The labor force participation rate is more inclusive, and declined for the 2nd month in a row.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/business/economy/jobs-repo...

    Furthermore the quality of available jobs appears to have declined.

  • News media ought to pay more attention to the confidence intervals associated with these metrics. Uncertainty is always present in statistics and the revisions to these numbers rarely get reported (it was reported in this case to fit the tone of the story). News articles like these have a powerful psychological effect on the public, so shouldn't the media do a more responsible job by saying "oh by the way, it's 38,000 jobs +- 50,000"?

  • For the curious, alternative measures of labor underutilization

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

  • This doesn't worry me so much on it's own. You have to contrast it with new unemployment rates.

  • Well, that's worrisome. The hiring rate, along with new unemployment benefit applications and various other stats is the an early indicator for the macro economy.

  • Got laid off yesterday. Hooray.

  • For a bit of perspective, see "Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month"[0]

    Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month

    Year Annual (000s) Worst Month (000s)

    1984 3,880 128

    1994 3,851 200

    1983 3,458 -308

    1997 3,408 -39

    1988 3,242 94

    1999 3,177 107

    1987 3,153 171

    1998 3,047 124

    1996 2,825 -18

    1993 2,817 -49

    2014 2,5851 142

    2005 2,506 67

    1985 2,502 124

    2013 2,331 84

    2012 2,236 88

    1995 2,159 -16

    2006 2,085 2

    2011 2,083 70

    2004 2,033 32

    12014 is the hiring pace through August.

    [0]http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/09/payroll-employment...

  • We really need is more immigration here. That will fix all of our problems.