Show HN: Tinder Revenue Estimate

  • Feedback: consider ditching the .00 on the numbers and spelling out "million"/"billion." It's a lot easier to quickly read "$36.2 million" than "$36,200,000.00"

  • Congrats on shipping! One suggestion: I'd make the URLs prettier e.g: /companies/<id>/stripe/bmodels, /companies/<id>/stripe/submodels/1, /companies/<id>/stripe/submodels/2, etc.

    That way I can delete the last part of a URL a return to the /companies/<id>/stripe/ home page. It's also easier to know what the URLs are about before opening them.

  • IAC has a chart showing total revenue of Match group, which includes tinder. Page 6

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/IACI/4185874240x0x970...

    BTW Love the quote "Match Group proved definitively in 2017 that Tinder is not just a moment, nor just a solid business reflecting an enduring commercial testament to the power of love. "

  • Really cool idea. It would be awesome if you could crowdsource the data for any companies through employees - some big companies don't have much transparency on revenue numbers, but employees in various positions could piece that information together through this service. Maybe even the rare private company that offers their revenue information willingly.

    Reliable data on revenue of private companies would be very useful to employees/investors in determining the actual value of the company's equity.

  • Nice work and grats on getting to the elusive "done" stage :)

    Income tax is a big piece missing from the expense model. I'm guessing it's easy to add that line item, but it even if so it would be cool to have it computed automatically since its mostly just a function of {domicile, entity_type, pretax_rev}.

  • Cool! I think evidence-backed modeling is a really interesting idea.

    As an unsolicited suggestion, I wonder if there's a way to emphasize numbers that are backed by evidence (links and maybe commentary?). Right now from a visual and informational standpoint all the numbers look like they're equally valid when in reality some of them could be based on reports published by Tinder and some could be just totally made up.

  • I think this number is a massive underestimate of their annual top-line. Based on the cost of a subscription I'd bet it's in the $1B+ range.

  • This is an interesting way of decomposing a business model in general, not just documenting existing companies. I could see something like this chipping away at the Excel models that we all made in business school. Reusable inputs, explicit sourcing of assumptions, creatively visualizing how to arrive at the outputs, easier to run what-if analysis.

    Not sure who the market would be as a paid service, but would be being a great teaching tool.

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  • I did an internship for a mobile games studio. They had really detailed estimates of competitor revenues because they were able to combine:

    1) their own daily revenue from titles

    2) publicly listed studios' quarterly revenue figures

    3) the daily rankings of 1 and 2 in the two app stores

    to extrapolate every rivals' revenue.

    I'm pretty sure tinder grosses more than $1 m / day (excluding ads)

    https://www.appannie.com/en/apps/ios/top/

    https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/

  • I like the site's intended purpose, but I agree with others that design needs improvement. Also, perhaps you can source some data from public data (i.e annual report, appannie).

  • Cool stuff.

    I've noticed that some times you source numbers from news articles, which you reference. How do you plan to keep the numbers updated?

    EDIT: In fact, how have you done it so far? Manually, I imagine?

  • You should allow requests to add or alter data, mostly like nomadlist.com do (example [1]). The owner could discuss and accept or reject the request. I think it would enrich the plan much quicker. Congrats for the launch!

    [1]https://nomadlist.com/canggu-bali-indonesia

  • This interface generalizes nicely to estimating any Fermi problem, not just business models. I love it!

  • I really like what you're doing here. Two things that I would like as a user: -ability to get updates (pref email) when new companies are added or companies I follow are updated -timeline for the financials. are these annual revenues? monthly? etc.

    Nice work on shipping!

  • The actual revenue may be in Match Group or IAC’s Quarterly or Annual financial filings on sec.gov or Morningstar. It’s also possible the revenue was teased out in one of their earnings call transcripts as well.

  • This is a cool idea! I'm not sure why but all the submodel pages say "There is an error in your formula." next to the current formula even though they seem to be the correct calculations.

  • I love the idea here, but I don't find the report very easy to read.

  • Have you built capability for nested sub-models? It doesn't look like it's structured that way, but I can imagine that being a desired feature as a model grows in complexity.

  • I find it interesting that the site-generated revenue almost covers what they pay in advertising to others. I wonder if that's an intentional strategy.

  • Employees + Salaries seems a bit higher than what I would expect. Does tinder employ 500 people? Last I heard it was around 200.

  • Suggestion: be able to specify ranges for variable estimates, and give ranges for the answers to calculations.

  • So RapGenius for Financial Statements?

  • I like it very much, but you should add some caching as the submodels are loading very slowly.

  • Any chance of Tinder IPO someday? TNDR

  • This is really interesting. Thank you!

  • Where are you getting these models?

  • Now do Bumble.

  • This should be a Show HN, as it is showcasing your (interesting) service, no?