Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way.
However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade.
* Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces.
* Amazon is about to enter a decade of unionization all over the world.
* Google and Facebook both lost a key ability to micro-target on their ad platforms so they are both reinventing themselves to drive revenue from other sources, hardware being the biggest moats they can invest in.
* Netflix has some of the worlds brightest minds in data science and they've built up a war-chest of understanding viewing habits. They've also gobbled up a lot of key Hollywood players in the last few years, so I expect some huge cultural changes ahead as these creatives start to take more leadership roles in the company.
I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.
Netflix's inclusion in this list instead of Microsoft may have been the best investor-relations coup in history.
I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here.
FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left.
I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see Apple decline. Their ideals and design and software quality from the previous decades are nowhere to be seen. Their software and UX especially have suffered from mismanagement, and I wonder how bad it will need to get before people start switching away. The alternatives are still behind, but the gap is closing in a bad way.
Facebook is currently ahead, but I wonder how much of that is perception. There is a lot of media about how Facebook is evil, but that is mostly from a pretty small circle of media and political people, that Facebook is naturally in opposition to. Facebook also owns instagram and whatsapp as well. But everyone over 30 I know uses Facebook, heavily. Instagram is also used very heavily. Amazon has threats from other E-commerce sites, lots of bad press, Governmental attacks, and unionization. Google prints money on search and I don't see enough people swapping to Duckduckgo to bring them down.
Amazon is also kept up by AWS, which who knows if one day that is spun off.
I worked at Facebook last year and Google this year. I don't have an insider view of the other companies but some of my closest friends work at all of them except Netflix.
My guess is that none of these will stop growing in the next few years, but Facebook is especially undervalued. They execute on new products faster and better than the others listed, so regardless of current sentiment they are probably not going to fail any time soon.
I chose Netflix because I have the least evidence to suggest they will remain stable, but would say the odds are <10% any of these have a lower market cap in 5 years than they do now.
Initially voted Google based on a hunch: Google Search is the most likely flagship product of a FAANG to get displaced by a competitor. Unlike, say, Amazon as a hub for products or Facebook as a social network, Google Search is not a natural monopoly -- there's no inherent reason a search engine should maintain dominance if it loses its competitive advantage. The complaints from tech friends ("you can't find anything anymore") that I've heard for years now are starting to come from tech-agnostic family instead. Alternatives are still worse, but it's easy to imagine a breakthrough.
However, this doesn't mean Google/Alphabet itself, with its diverse product suite and huge amount of advertising data, will decline in any meaningful sense; that will happen on a much slower scale.
I think we have out grown FAANG. There are tech companies with moats and great tech that should be included. IE: Microsoft and Shopify. Decline is kinda open ended too, but if we are talking about ability to hire the best talent, I think it's safe to say Facebook/Meta is going to see a decline in talent. Despite their amazing salaries, because of the brand name that's attached to it they won't see as great talent anymore.
Agree with others about Netflix not being appropriate for this list. Their success or failure in the marketplace will have little to do with the factors affecting the others on this list.
FWIW today is my last day at Google (after 10 years), so maybe that's informing what I'm about to write...
I don't have any particular pick from any of this list which is dominant over any other, but...
People keep bringing up Google Search still being leading and dominant... but Ads is Google's revenue source and product ... and that's only partially driven by search traffic. Even without Search, Google would still be the strongest presence in online advertising.
Google's share price is buoyed quarter after quarter by Google coming in with growth in ads revenue quarter after quarter.
I don't think it's controversial to speculate that some day that has to stop. It's just taking a long time to stop. All markets have a saturation.
When it does, that will have some kind of cascading effect on Google as a whole. Engineering retention, vulnerability to competition, etc.
I think a similar kind of dynamic applies to Facebook as well, with some differences around market segment etc.
At least a couple of these companies' success depends on their ability not so much to innovate or produce a better product but to retain the right talent to stop other people from innovating or producing a better product. And to continue to do what they're already doing at scale. A failure to hand out hundreds of thousands in RSUs per engineer every year and an end to siphoning talent straight out of universities and into their payroll.. and all of that will start to crumble.
My guess is Netflix, I think the others have much wider moats. No actual number crunching was involved in producing this guess.
Why the hell does netflix has so many upvotes? i would pay triple their max subscription fee for their content!
For me it has to be Google, yeah FB too for obvious reasons but Google got too big and their products have been showing a detrimental pattern. They will be around but people are using tiktok and friends in lieu of youtube and their main revenue source is ADs via search and I see many good competitors in that space. New apps and enganging services don't really rely on google search. The main spenders are merchants and being able to get virtual foot traffic without Google's help is getting easier by the day.
Both Google and FB (Alphabet/Meta) are clouded by the arrogance an deep pocket brings where they thing their cash will somehow overcome the law of diminishing returns. Their historical predecessors like AT&T, IBM & Cisco are good examples. You can tell by how they treat their customers. Apple and Amazon know better, they keep their status because they know their deep pockets are always vulnerable and they need to treat their users very well even if they have to treat their employees like shit. I thing google and fb will just keep investing in new companies, lawyers and lobbyists to rhyme with history.
Example: I thing GCP is superior but I would bet on AWS support more than GCP any day! I think android can be customized to provide a better security and private environment but I would bet having a good UX with iOS any day.
Voted for Facebook. The “Meta” rebranding reeks of desperation. They have only maintained growth by purchasing competitors and their main platform is dying. As others have said, each generation wants to differentiate itself from the previous one, so social media networks wax and wane as time goes on. Facebook bought IG and WhatsApp, but regulators are waking up and are likely to prevent their next attempt to purchase a big competitor. VR is going to remain a smaller market than social media, no potential to get bigger than the video games console market because it is primarily used for video games and will stay that way.
Amazon, Apple, and Google are each well-entrenched and also have a good bit of cash and patents available to pivot or crush competitors if necessary. Plus if broken up (e.g. by gov't antitrust regs, etc.) each would have multiple sustainable businesses that could survive independently of the main company.
Netflix will buy/be bought. Much like cell phone carriers, ISPs, and CATV companies, consolidation will leave only a few heavy hitters. Netflix would be a nice addition to Peacock or Paramount+ and would give each a sense of legitimacy.
Meanwhile, Facebook has made many enemies on all sides; they're synonymous with tracking users, fake news, and old folks. I can't think of anyone who doesn't use Facebook somewhat begrudgingly. Also, does anyone actually like FB/Meta? Or Zuckerberg, the defacto face of the company? Facebook is one or two gaffes away from where Myspace is today.
Amazon is the only one on that list that has actively reached out to me, it's also the only one I'd never interview at given what I've heard about working conditions there. Some places seem to keep everything on fire all the time and have big expectations on engineers personal time to keep the fires from consuming the business, Amazon is like that from what I've heard.
Ordered by chance of decline (IMHO):
1. Netflix (~50% chance) - I feel it's only bundled with the rest of FAANG to make it sound better. In any case, HBO/Disney/Apple/whoever producing a cultural phenomenon like "Game of Thrones" would be enough for Netflix to lose the lead. Netflix wants to game viewers based on big data, but I feel like that will only lead to more and more generic stuff being produced.
2. Facebook (~25% chance) - It has pissed off multiple governments and other tech giants. Younger generations don't really care about it, and older people are starting to understand that it thrives on outrage.
3. Google (~10% chance) - Most of their services are slowly becoming worse, but I feel there's at least another decade before disruption time.
4. Apple (~1% chance) - Even if they need to allow additional app stores by law, I don't see that significantly impacting their bottom line. iPhone/iPad/Watch are the device to own in their categories, and the latest crop of Macbooks have been absolutely stellar. Additionally, they have by far the most devout userbase out of any big tech company. If anything can hurt Apple, that's the NIH syndrome, but it's more of a long-term concern.
5. Amazon (0% chance) - Yeah, not happening. Amazon is synonymous with online retail in a time when online retail is what keeps the world going. And AWS is only going to grow, even if it somehow manages to fall behind Azure. Labor unions will certainly show up, but so will automation.
The emotional favoritism in these poll results is laughable so far. Everyone and their cousin on HN loves to shit on Facebook, so lo and behold, it gets the worst ranking, followed by Google. Apple, despite a number of very consumer-hostile choices, is barely considered a potential failure. I would assume that those voting would choose based on a rational analysis derived from their personal knowledge of tech trends, instead of simple personal dislikes. Oops..
I don't think people will stop using the Google search bar. I don't think people will stop binging shows on Netflix. I don't think people will stop ordering crap on Amazon. I don't think people who use iphones and macbooks will stop buying iphones and macbooks.
Hard for me to see how it wouldn't be FB/meta. They're betting the farm on something unproven / creating new habits / maintaining habits that seem to be waning.
I don't see how Netflix will hold ground. Streaming tech is now a commodity, not a moat. 2-3 years ago I would have said Netflix is the streaming sub to have. Hard to say that now. Disney, HBO and Amazon also have great original content and huge catalogues that could sustain a family as the only sub. Apple is growing a small but quality catalogue, and bundling within the ubiquitous iCloud package. Amazon has a massive bought-in base being that they bundled it with Prime shipping. There are countless other legacy network subs and content re-packagings to choose from.
So I don't see Netflix as particular a leader in content, scale, or value.
Their best (only?) post-streaming tech innovation is the collaborative filtering. A way of finding something passable to watch that is better that channel flipping broadcast TV. Now there is so much great content that people just go straight to the show with the buzz.
If there is one promising area they lead now I'd say it's internationalized content like Squid Game and Money Heist, but I'm not convinced this is big enough moat.
Order of decline:
Netflix, Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple.
Netflix because their moat isn't strong enough.
Facebook because of monetized-ads model and backlash against social media in general.
Google also because of monetized-ads model and declining quality of search results.
Amazon and Apple are relatively safe IMO.
Amazon is the most at risk from unionization and regulation, potentially breaking up their business verticals. But motivation to do this seems to have subsided after last years congressional hearings.
Apple is really only at risk if people start questioning shelling out thousands for the "shiny new thing".
I quit facebook (as a user, never worked for them). I may drop Netflix. I've been mad at apple ever since I bought a powerbook that crapped out within a year and a few months, just outside the warranty (I never bought the extended, it was Mac, they never break), and was told I'd have to pay $350 to fix it (I didn't damage it in any way, it was just a turkey of a product), but I'm still using an iPhone. Amazon prime remains immensely popular in my household both for movies and tv shows and ordering gifts, books and groceries, and while I'd like to to use it less, I don't see that happening. I use Firefox and duckduckgo as much as I can, but still use gmail, google docs, search, and google cloudplatform and AI notebooks - the latter extensively.
No idea if my own personal preferences or needs have anything to do with overall appeal or decline.
I worked for Sun Microsystems once, late 90s-2001. A lot of people figured the dot com thing would take a tumble, but felt good about Sun's prospects (as workers and as an investment) because Sun made real tangible things, servers and workstations.
Amazon, at the time, was a bookstore with a "dot com" tacked on to the end.
Apple hadn't yet released OS X and was often accused of coasting on good looks and being pretty.
There was no facebook and wouldn't be for a few more years... there was "the globe", friendster, a few of those. When I was at Sun, I sat in an office that is now facebook.
Google was around, though a lot of people were saying search was no longer a differentiator, and that the important thing for a search engine was to become a portal and be "sticky", and be a bit more like a content provider, entertainment hub, and so forth.
The people who thought Sun was a good bet made perfect sense - in retrospect, they had it wrong, and some people accurately pointed this out at the time... but you could make a reasonable case for Sun.
So... just sayin'
I do not understand why Facebook ranks at the top when they have near monopoly in internet social networking industry. Twitter, Snapchat and TikTok combined do not have market cap even close to FB plus FB has plenty of space and time to further monetize Instagram and WhatsApp. TikTok is only real competition to FB so far. I voted for Netflix; too much competition and original content is expensive to make.
Facebook's business model seems to me the most fragile one. They rely a lot on automated moderation and are seriously understaffed in the "human moderator" segment.
It is likely that various countries will push Facebook around and force it to somehow respect local laws regarding freedom of speech or criminalization of hate speech. This needs a lot of human moderators whose aggregated compensation might sink the company, unless it starts charging the users.
But charging the users turns them into customers and makes them way more assertive against their business partners in disputes. Yet another source of extra costs.
Ok. So FB ends up getting the top spot, which needs to be discounted by the utter hate for the company on HN. (They're called Meta btw) :)
But, surprisingly Netflix seems to ending up on second place. I think that's shortsighted and not taking into account how deeply they're integrated into the film production industry by now.
It's one thing to build a streaming platform and acquire some customers. It's a whole different game to do this and create great content.
PS: My bet is google. Just look at their deteriorating search results and the missing other revenue streams.
I think the European acronym, GAFAM, is more applicable. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAFAM
On a related note, I genuinely think that Meta/FB will be one of the first companies that goes through a Big Oil kind of a break-up within the next decade. Most likely will involve the de-merger of Instagram/WhatsApp from FB and maybe Oculus. Its just a privacy nightmare at this point.
As of this post, scores are 748 FB, 28 AMZN, 29 AAPL, 262 NFLX, 128 GOOG
"Decline" is also not defined. I am interpreting it as "lose a significant amount of users", not as a question to predict their stock price.
I voted Amazon, and given the scores, I feel compelled to explain why.
- AWS is a massive beast within Amazon, and it seems increasingly likely that it'll be spun up into its own company
- Beyond its other attempts at diversifying, Amazon-the-marketplace is garnering worse and worse reputation. Unless they severely change their ways, other players will catch up. Amazon's huge sell to customers used to be its product reliability and customer support. Both of these have suffered tremendously.
- Covid accelerated a lot of the online trends which makes me think Amazon is past its peak.
I could elaborate but it's getting late. FB the website will likely decline in the coming years, but MZ has shown an astounding capacity of staying ahead of trends and buying winners (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). Netflix I do find likely to decline but not as much as Amazon, and most of all Netflix still has lots of potential for growth. Google seems Too Big To Fail, at best my gut says they will stagnate. And apple I just don't know enough about but they seem very safe.
Don't you mean MAANG :D
But its Facebook for sure. If it wasn't for buying Instagram they would circling the drain right now.
Google is the king of search and ads. Apple is the premium product company and now chip maker. Netflix is in a saturated market but have proven they can make original content. Amazon runs the vast majority of the internet on its servers, let alone retail sales.
It's interesting... Apple was originally founded in 1976, about a year after Microsoft. But we often hear about and think about FAANG, like with this poll. What sets Microsoft apart from this group?
They are "older" though, being older than Apple is more a measure of how long they've been successful. Microsoft and Apple often battle for larger market capitalization. They both deliver software and hardware, and the two of the most popular operating systems in use (Windows, Android, iOS). Microsoft is arguably more B2B, while Apple has a more recognized consumer brand.
Microsoft is infamous for messing up on the consumer end, and Windows 11 feels like a repeat of this. On the other hand, they are still doing well with their Xbox division. But are they omitted from this poll because of the assumption that their core business... selling to other businesses, will carry them on indefinitely?
This was hard to answer, I had to think carefully about weather I thought each one will decline, or weather I want them to decline. In short IMHO:
Amazon - Needs to clean up the 3rd party seller mess, but that will just make them better. They still offer good service.
Netflix - They're being replaced (unfortunately) by a bunch of different streaming services so they will never have as full a catalog as they did.
Apple - Hmmm. Still making great products people want to pay for. Probably near their peak customer value like MS circa 2003.
Facebook - Just make it go away. Doesn't mean it will though.
Google - Fading in search relevance but hasn't been displaced yet. They'll be here for a while longer.
So I'm going with Netflix as most likely to decline over the next few years.
Schrödinger's Apple because China's inevitable re-unification with Taiwan will take the U.S.-China cold-war to the next level ( assuming that there's not an actual short, hot war, which, IMO, the U.S. would loose unless it used its nukes), the box will be opened and Tim Cook will be forced to choose whether Apple's loyalties with the U.S. or China. We could even see a rogue Apple China de-merge itself somewhat like happened with ARM [0].
[0] https://www.iotworldtoday.com/2021/09/08/arm-loses-china/
Facebook (the app) is already in decline. WhatsApp has been next to impossible to monetize. Oculus/the Metaverse is an ambitious plan but ultimately pretty hard to pull off. If/when users start getting bored of Instagram, Meta will start to see warning bells. Their future lies in being able to acquire the next "big thing" in the social space, but with increased antitrust scrutiny I don't know if that will be possible either.
Weird to see how little traction Amazon is getting.
Labor issues, easy antitrust (you can just cut off AWS, Audible etc.) , and a new more passive CEO sounds pretty dangerous to me.
Amazon, Google and Netflix seem to be happy where they are and don't seem to be innovating much; more interested in collecting rents on existing properties. Apple keeps doing what they've been doing for the last 20 years (successfully). Facebook is trying to pitch this Meta thing, which to me sounds like a desperation play and doesn't sound that interesting, but I'm not hip with whatever is going on in social media.
I think trust in Amazon is beginning to decline, at least in my limited circle. I've recently have had several packages from Amazon UK go missing followed by difficulties sorting it out, alongside other issues. I'm no longer sure I would trust them with high value purchases, and certainly would be wary of buying anything for consumption from them given the number of fake products floating around.
Of course, non of that will touch AWS...
Is there any way to hide the votes until you've voted?
Netflix shouldn't have ever been included in that grouping.
Apple has a bajillion dollar war-chest that could last forever, but they feel the most creatively bankrupt.
Apple is my vote. It's very easy to be a tech professional who uses a lot of tech in my free time and never rely on, interact with, or even think about Apple products beyond users that may be using them. Therefore, it's easy for me to imagine a world where Apple just doesn't exist, and not because some unknown competitor rises up. However, I don't think that is particularly likely.
Facebook seems the most likely but that’s only if what they’re trying to do with Meta fails. Google on the other hand seems to have entirely lost their ability to innovate and it’s not clear to me that they’re even trying to do anything of significance at all. So I’m a bit torn. But I’m going with Google because I’m the long run I think a lack of effort is probably the worst thing to have
I have not been impressed by Apple, Google and Facebook during the last 4-5 years.
All of these companies are extremely rich and powerful, but they won't disrupt themselves.
They barely compete in practice, they are happy to live in a stable ecosystem they own.
They won't be displaced easily, but they will, at some point, in the mean time technology in their space is unlikely to progress as quickly as it could.
Amazon, Apple (3T MCAP!), and Google for all their faults and frustrations are highly diversified and incredibly wealthy to stagnate themselves into a decline. And I'd argue they each have the collective brainpower to know the criticality of innovation to a company's survival.
"Teenage users of the Facebook app in the US had declined by 13 percent since 2019 and were projected to drop 45 percent over the next two years, driving an overall decline in daily users in the company’s most lucrative ad market."[0]
Sounds pretty dire to me. Dire enough to prompt the rebranding and pivot into Meta. They'd be my first choice. Netflix, 2nd, is just content (with some great tech under the hood), but just content paid for by a monthly subscription.
[0] https://www.theverge.com/22743744/facebook-teen-usage-declin...
I'd say in terms of relevancy, either facebook or netflix:
- Netflix already feels like an outlier in that list because they're not as technically focused as any of the other ones listed. They feel more like a media company these days, not a tech company, and as time goes on there's less and less differentiating them from any other media company/streaming service.
- If Metaverse doesn't pan out for them, I don't see either FB or Insta having a revival in popularity in the coming years. The only family I have still under 20 have deleted or abandoned FB, and I don't see the younger generation bothering with the "keep up with family" social network, and Insta keeps getting its lunch eaten with all its competitors. It feels like Insta is going to get a competitor at some point that will take its main offering (photographic status updates, basically) and then it'll suffer the same fate of irrelevancy.
Depends on what you mean by "decline". But if you're talking about stock price, then the current Shiller PE Ratios are:
Amazon = 238.08 Netflix = 219.32 Google = 73.95 Facebook = 68.36 Apple = 63.17
The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is current ~30. All of these companies are overpriced, and Amazon and Netflix significantly so.
I think google.
FB is the obvious one, but they see the writing on the wall and are making plans. I think google is the one that has been complacent but doesn't realize it, so its the one most likely to fail. Its also the only one without effective competition, which is all the more reason it will be taken by surprise.
Netflix, each media holder is looking to monetize and create their own streaming platform. Netflix was first, but does not hold rights to Disney, NBC, etc -
For primary markets, USA and such it will have more and more competition but in other parts of the world they'll be able to still license content until more mature infrastructure develops - netflix is #2 to CDN/cohosting in the world, right behind facebook.
Disney plus though, really getting up there with creative content and it's massive legacy of IP.
Google - Adtech, no problems there unfortunately, just more crappy internet. Apple - iPhones/Macbook and it's ecosystem is alive and well though revenue stream of app store could change in the future. Amazon - Infrastructure as a service, way better than Google, no problem here. Storefront is a minor part of it's business.
I voted Google because I don't believe it's special anymore. It's become IBM and Microsoft, with just enough forward momentum to find the rare 10x engineer here and there.
The others still have interesting tech that will unfold in disruptive ways, and that will be the big talent magnet for future engineers.
Netflix will have the most competitively difficult path forward, with massive and aggressive competitors swarming in from all sides. You've got the recently-awoken content giants (Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Hulu, etc), and then you've got new players like Apple and Amazon with deep, deep pockets.
Google can take a lot of criticism for being relatively complacent and without much visible innovation lately, but they'll coast on Google Workspaces (G Suite), search/advertising, and their OS marketshare just like Microsoft did for decades. They have ample time to make and correct mistakes. I've also noticed that whatever products their intense focus is on often see rapid, high quality improvements (like when Google Meet development accelerated after the pandemic started).
Facebook could go either way. It owns Instagram, of course, and I think they know the social media business well. WhatsApp will never go anywhere, it's entrenched. They're big enough to copy novel new social media ideas quickly. A highlight is that they truly are a leader in VR, and the Oculus Quest is clearly a hit in that category. If VR and AR truly become big businesses (skeptical on that but we'll see), Facebook will be growing.
I can't see Amazon declining due to their dominance as a logistics company for everything. They can become truly awful any everyone will just keep using Amazon.com and AWS.
I don't know if this is a bold prediction, a safe prediction, or just one that will get me accused of being a fanboy, but in this list think Apple is the least likely player to decline in the years ahead. They have shown time and time again that they have good management in place that has a long-term vision in mind. A lot of people say that Steve Jobs was the greatest and Apple isn't the same anymore, but they've taken advantage of every possible high margin business with their newest products in the post-Steve Jobs era. Apple Watch with its accessory ecosystem (like $400 Hermes watch bands), headphones and audio, and all the subscription services.
The leading indicator I'd use to analyze how strong these companies will be in a decade is: how much of their bull market zeitgeist is based around nebulous technology ideas that don't exist, and that investors really don't understand. Its the "hope" factor; if investors are bullish on promises about future tech, it means they aren't bullish about their current tech; and history is the best indicator of the future.
The three big zeitgeists right now are: AR/VR, Metaverse, and Crypto. By this measure:
Amazon is very strong. This is a company that achieved unreal fulfillment numbers during a world-stopping global pandemic that brought their peers to their knees. Yet they only control single-digit percentages of US commerce. They're a company that doesn't just make empty promises about next-gen tech like drone delivery or same-day fulfillment or "supply chain hardening"; they deliver (literally) and are deploying this tech today.
Google is strong. Google is the ghost in the information machine. Ten years ago everyone was so concerned about how competitors could disrupt their control in search, maps, video, etc. No one has. If they have eyes, they will find a way to monetize it. Combine that with their slow but methodical push into B2B, between Workspace & Cloud, and I'm not concerned about them.
Netflix is stable. Piracy will be an issue as these platforms shard more and more good content between different subscriptions, but I also think its a self-fixing problem. We're in a period of striation, and we'll soon enter a period of coalescing; Netflix & Disney+ are very well positioned to survive and continue to do well.
Apple is weak. iPhone is flat. Mac is flat. iPad is flat. Their biggest wins over the past decade have been on the accessory side (Watch & AirPods). AR can either be a "metaverse platform", which will stumble to see "next-iPhone success" because Apple doesn't play well with other children and loves their gardens, or it could be "another accessory", which will also stumble because that's not a trillion dollar business.
Facebook is very weak. The metaverse stuff will probably pay off to some degree, but their biggest gain will be on the hardware side. They just won't be able to produce the same kind of open digital universe that video-game native competitors in this space (like Epic) have spent years preparing for. They aren't a video game company, and that's the skillset this takes.
I guess I should expect to see FB at #1 given this is HN, but even with the negative bias, it’s surprising to see people discount the success of Oculus so easily.
Quest was one of the best selling holiday gifts this year, and the companion app even hit #1 in the iOS App Store (over IG, TikTok, etc.)[1]. FB the app may be slowing growth, but AR/VR seems poised to be the next major computing platform - and mainstream adoption shares this sentiment. It’s fine to wish for the company’s demise, but arguing that they’re ready to fail seems foolish.
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/metaverse...
I was trying to decide which of these I am hoping will decline, but realized the answer is actually all of them - even the one I work for.
Netflix is the only one I consider "innocent" however their market segment as a whole deserves a kicking for pushing us back towards the cable TV model.
I have historically been very anti Apple but the M1 is impressive, as is their attitude to privacy. Not such a good look on the working culture front though.
Google and Amazon are both toxic to some extent, while being so good as to be indispensable to a majority of their customers. For Google that is B2C, for Amazon (and Microsoft, who deserve inclusion here), that is B2B. On balance I expect stasis for all 3.
Having Facebook decline all the way out of existence would give me hope for humanity, but I don't see it happening.
The thread should be more accurately renamed: Which FAANG do you most want to decline in the years ahead?
Facebook for social/political reasons
Google, for SE reasons.
I’ve never had as many issues with F/OSS projects than I’ve had with Google’s open source projects. Whenever I need a bug fixed I tell my girlfriend “I’m about to be treated like I’m dumb in a bug tracker.” It’s usually basic functionality that was documented years ago but never actually functioned properly. The fix is usually done behind closed doors by a Google employee in 1-n months and tossed back over the wall. Very little space for a non-Googler to contribute and employee maintainers seem to leave often.
The documentation structure used across projects is non-sensical as well. No next/prev, just “related” links. They actually brag about the doc process in their software engineering book.
Google and Facebook. One of these days people will understand that ads are a huge driver of overconsumption and therefore climate change. Since Google's and FB's businessmodels depend almost completely on ads, it is clear who has to go first.
I think Apple and Amazon are the only 2 that won't decline. I'm a little on the fence with Google because of phones and maps, but that's kind of all they have going on.
Ok, I'm also probably wrong about Facebook, but I so want to be right! :-)
Facebook. Zuckerberg told investors that it will take awhile before heavy investment in metaverse bears fruit.
What if they miss?
It feels weird to say this but I'm still wearily rooting for them.
Bonus- I think that Microsoft is least likely to decline. Just look at that stock trend line.
Everyone here loves to hate on Facebook, but they're not going anywhere. They have successfully metastasized out into the web in a way that irreversible. Instagram is still the hottest thing around, and will be for the foreseeable future.
Of this list, Netflix is the only obvious one that will see serious user loss. They had a great thing going for about 10 years until the pandemic knocked every Hollywood exec upside the head to realize that streaming is no longer optional. Netflix has been reduced almost entirely to their own content at this point as every other producer is running their own service now. And Netflix original content is... spotty at best.
Google search results sucks. Here is a list of alternative search engines i find handy
Has to be Netflix as I really don't know what their core competency is right now. They produce some content but they sell subs via content from others. They don't have a larger business to fund the slide into the abyss, IMO.
I hope Facebook since it would benefit the world, but I think Netflix is most likely.
Does FB have anything of interest? They missed the platform train. They don't provide infrastructure. And they didn't buy the next big thing before it got there.
All I see is a huge bet on the yet undefined metaverse and declining interest in their current products. I wouldn't predict a quick death, but a drawn out descent in to obscurity.
And to broaden the question: I don't know where Twitter is off to. It is a miserable place but it fills a well defined niche and there's no competition. While I see Microsoft outlasting humanity. There is no way they'll go down before everything else does first.
Amazon is its own shopping search engine. It won't suffer much even if Google blocks it.
Apple has its own ecosystem and cult. It's safe for the time being.
Google owns advertising, the major mobile OS and search. Anyway all of them could be offered separately in a better way. Advertising and search are easier to overturn than Android.
Facebook is hated but is owns messaging outside Apple's boundary. Network effects protect them but network effects could destroy it as quickly as they built FB's lead.
Netflix can be overturned by any competitor with a cheaper plan.
These are my votes in reverse order.
I don't see any of these companies flat-out failing ever, but it does seem like they've gone the way of IBM. In the Fortune 500 but not quite as innovative as they were at their peak.
I feel like every generation has had their list of companies to be "lifers" at. There was Bell Labs, HP, IBM in a past generation. Then there was Google and Apple in a newer generation. Then there was Netflix, Facebook, AWS, etc. Right now, there are none! Who will start the next one, and avoid it becoming one from my list?
Facebook is only going up with its advantage in VR platforms.
Netflix, on the other hand, has no real competitive advantage at this point except being the oldest streaming service with a good brand.
Google is too big and too diverse to fail.
Amazon's Cloud computing is going strong, still the dominant eBook platform and now dominant audiobook platform, plus retail.
Apple's margins are always good. They don't need to do anything different.
When Microsoft and IBM didn't fall after a decade of bad decision making I've lost faith in "no one is too big to fail".
Interesting that most here are not counting the cloud businesses of Amazon / Google, but these are important because they are getting built into the foundations of a generation of companies computing infrastructure. It may not be super visible at the moment but this revenue is going to be very durable because the cost of shifting tech stacks is enormous.
Interesting that Microsoft has missed out on being a FAANG (is this just because we cant make the acronym work?) .... they are much more significant than Netflix
Google feels the least aggressive about moving into the future.
Ignoring KPI and financial results I'd say Netflix because its core business is not as diverse as the others ? Unless they pivot their core business to a video CDN.
Apple and Amazon are still churning out products and tech advancement at breakneck speeds, especially given their size.
Google and Facebook are definitely stagnating and burning money on expanding (unsuccessfully) outside of the advertising duopoly they have.
Netflix is in the unfortunate position of battling against the established and increasingly technically competent entertainment industry and the technically competent and better funded tech industry.
I see Facebook as the one most likely to struggle because, at least in the UK, Facebook the site is disliked by tons of people and is now mostly used day to day by older people. I don’t know anyone that is my age that actively posts on it anymore. Most people only keep it to keep in touch with older family who don’t use anything else. On the other hand, Instagram is very popular and so is WhatsApp.
Amazon (Cloud and Shopping), Apple (Hardware), Google (Search, Apps, Cloud) and Microsoft (Cloud, Apps) will be fine. Amazon, Apple and Google will be more regulated but will stabilize like Microsoft. I do not see a growth model for Facebook. Selling ads with regulators all over the world fighting against you is nothing sustainable. And Netflix .. I mean .. look at their catalogue.
Google seems like the obvious choice. They rely on people continuing to use search in its current form. I don't see how that survives the next ten years. It's too obviously ripe for replacement. It's not at all a stretch to say search is for the most part a waste of time if you're going to type a phrase into a text entry box and read the results.
Kinda shocked Facebook is past Netflix.
I realize Facebook isn’t very popular right now, but all I see usually is people talking about how bad Facebook is, while the browse their Instagram and talk on messenger.
Not saying you can’t hate the company for what it is, but seems like so many people are calling for the end of Facebook while being it’s most dedicated users.
LOL, Netflix is a FAANG? They're small potatoes in the big picture; by market cap:
(1) Apple 2.98T (2) Microsoft 2.51T (3) Alphabet (Google) 1.92T (5) Amazon 1.72T (7) Meta (Facebook) 941B ... (35) Netflix 264B
Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/
Netflix is the odd duck here in that being a content company, they don't have a repeatable business model.
They depend on hits and one hit does not guarantee a follow up hit.
Like any film production company or games company, if they start repeatedly investing into big budget content that bombs, they will rapidly run into trouble.
I thought that Netflix would suffer from their apparent focus on "quantity of shows" over "quality of shows", but it seems to have not hurt them much so far. There are still some good Netflix exclusive shows, but there's some really terrible ones to wade through.
Decline in what sense... product innovation? market share? stock price? revenue growth? profitability?
The market cap of these companies is:
Amazon - $1.5 trillion
Netflix - $260 billion
Apple - $3 trillion
Google - $2 trillion
Facebook - $1 trillion
Anyone who thinks facebook (i.e. meta) is going to drop can buy put options. the $150 put 2 years out is selling for $5 so if you buy 100 for $50K - When the stock falls you will have enough money to buy a house
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From a user utility / user-friendliness / product quality point of view, all of them have already declined, and will likely continue to do so. At the same time all of them will likely continue to grow, although with diminishing returns.
The biggest recent change is that Amazon has thrown away it's reputation for being a reliable customer service focused marketplace in favor of being a marketplace for (too often substandard if not outright fraudulent) third party partners.
Hard not to see Facebook declining as they bleed their younger audience. Part of me wants to see a new AR paradigm with lightweight glasses and a fully augmented reality but it seems fuzzy/far away with lots of ways to get it wrong.
My bet is that Whatsapp and Instagram will be separated from Facebook, but Meta will have many times bigger role in the company's future, so I wouldn't call a declination here.
Google in turn will be split into smaller segments.
Facebook if antitrust actually does its job properly (notably, give back Whatsapp to Brian Acton and Jan Koum, don't require a log-in to view public Instagram photos, and don't tie the Oculus to Facebook accounts)
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Could Netflix become the next Time Warner? Could Facebook become the next Yahoo? Could Amazon become the next Sears? Could Apple become the next Kodak? Google is fine: it already is the new IBM.
This is the first time I've participated in a poll, and I wish I could vote before seeing the results. Not that dang and friends aren't busy enough — just mentioning for the future.
Is this in any way inspired by Chamath Palihapitiya advice to short a FAANG that you think will decline and go long the one you think will do best (to hedge against major market moves)
I wonder if “all of the above” is too crazy? All of these companies have reached a stage in their corporate life where innovation is expected to stop or at least slow down.
I expect Apple will increasingly become the target of anti-trust and since they are so strongly focused on anti-competitive practices, it will impact them the most.
Google (at least the search engine). As more and more content is created inside closed services, Google will become less valuable.
It's got to be Facebook. Increased awareness about privacy and a few more mishaps and that's enough to kick it all off
Maybe I am wrong, but I think Facebook has jumped the shark with the virtual reality Meta branding. It's not going to work.
HN is really convinced the only other player in the online ad market besides Google is going to decline?
im going netflix. the sheer amount of services the other companies provide is staggering compared to netflix. The streaming space is very crowded, and netflix has the most expensive pricing while shifting to being dependent on shows they create vs a catalog of others.
My ranking (from greatest to least decline): 1. Facebook 2. Google 3. Amazon 4. Netflix 5. Apple
Currently seems to be running at about the ratio I see things as they currently stand.
Personally it would go to FB for me.
As I no longer use their products, and I feel nothing changed.
All of them, if we are lucky.
I maintain Facebook is doomed, but I lost a $100 bet on the timeline :(
Why do people hate Netflix? I'm out of the loop on that...
Isn’t it MAANA now? Meta > Facebook Alphabet > Google
I'd say Netflix as it stands today. Not enough differentiation, and their catalog continues to skew more and more towards Netflix Originals which constitute a pretty "mixed bag" IMO. If they continue to drop more and more "external" content, which more often makes up the stuff I go in wanting to see, I could see cancelling their service.
OTOH, if they keep producing enough of their own content, that is good enough, they might keep me around. For example, if they come out with another show as good as, say, Bojack Horseman, every so often then I would likely keep my subscription.
Time will tell, I suppose.
Honestly apple is the only company in this list which has any deep respect in the world. So I think they will survive. The rest are just here for the time being.
Out of THOSE? Facebook hands down. The others are also playing fast and loose with the truth and are no angels, but only Facebook is really actively hated.
Why is Microsoft not in this poll?
Tesla?
where is microsoft, possibly even nvidia
Meta - gamna
Microsoft
RIP FAANG
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Three years is a very short time. Even if any of these companies starts to decline it won’t be noticeable.
Decline is far too charitable to Facebook and Netflix. They need to cease to exist.
Any product that Facebook makes produces -99% of value for humanity.