I have this mental list of "things I would love to see and am too lazy to actually implement right now and maybe someone else will come up with the same idea and spare me the work".

And now I can cross another item off of that list.

Reminds me of overcoming bias' stuff. For example: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/who-are-macro-experts....

We really need this sort of thing to take off ...

Unfortunately, the public hates them. When DARPA created a prediction market (PAM) there was so much public outrage that the head of the agency was fired.

This is extraordinarily important work to see done. Whether or not anyone is bothering to keep track of successful predictions affects the whole quality of predictions that will be publicly made, which affects the sanity of the whole society. Mod parent up and link to this project on your blog.

Are there any categories besides right and wrong? I'd imagine that the success of some predictions is open to interpretation and/or ambiguous enough to defy easy categorization. A perfect example would be "Podcasting will be a factor in the 2006 congressional elections in the US." How much counts as "a factor?" Any amount > 0? How can we be sure one way or the other about this one, without some extensive analysis?

At the very least, I think some explanation of how the determination is made should be required.

Very, very cool. Kind of like the Obama promise-keeper website that I thought was cool, but then promptly forgot about. I'd like to suggest a couple of features, without which I probably will promptly forget this site as well:

  1)  E-mail or alert me when a prediction is verified correct, or expires, whichever comes first.
  2)  Mirror the URL at which the prediction is made.

If you peruse the Bloomberg wire and keep track of stock analyst predictions, this site could grow into a "forecast analyzer" of stock "experts." Of course, someone needs to login and edit whether the prediction was correct.

I, and I think lots of others, all have had this on a todo list. I think the reason they never seem to get built or take off is that there is such a lag between their establishment and their payoff.

I assume the trick is to have some dedicated submitters for a year, and then to really push the interesting right/wrong answers into the right social news sites. That should get them over the hump. I hope this site manages to do that. Bookmarked.

Related: http://www.longbets.org/

I love this in concept, but somehow feel like it'd be better established as some sort of data blog. Perhaps you could find some aspiring young writer out there willing to work for equity?

Seems to be down at the moment... and now it's ok. Weird.

I agree completely with sethg... I had this idea floating around, and it's nice to see it. Do make it easier to see some statistics, and see wrong/right predictions, as that's a bit more interesting for the casual browser.

BTW, it's really slow again.

For some reason the #s in authors, don't match up with the actual author profile.

Of all those, I tend to think T. Boone Pickens is the one who's most likely to turn out right.

The question is, if someone turns out to be right, does he get removed from the list?