There's another factor that the article doesn't mention explicitly: DVRs erode some of the benefits of pirating TV shows. People pirate TV shows (that are available on air where they live) largely because they want to watch them when they want, they want to be able to pause when they need to, and they don't want to sit through five minute blocks of the same advertisements they've seen three times already in the program.

I suspect Hulu exists because someone noticed this and wanted to erode more of said benefits.

"Families with DVRs seem to spend 15-20% of their viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and skip only about half of all advertisements. This means only about 5% of television is time-shifted and less than 3% of all advertisements are skipped."

I boggle. We never, ever watch live TV under normal circumstances (barring election nights, 9/11, and so on), and the only time ads aren't skipped is when there is nobody in the room to skip them (or watch them). Even with high-interest sporting events broadcast live we start watching half an hour late so that we can skip the ads.

I am at loss to explain those numbers.

Edit: good point below. We have a Dish DVR, and it really is very well done useability-wise.

I figure either DVD players or probably DVRs will soon connect to the internet to play flash content there. I currently use my Wii to connect to BBC iPlayer but it only has Flash 7 which limits it's use.

What could be disruptive about that is if content companies sell their content directly cutting out the TV network middle man.

I'm surprised at the (Turner Broadcasting-supplied) stats on DVR usage. Since I got a TiVo, watching 'live' TV has become practically intolerable. Even when I want to see something ASAP, I'll do something else for 15-20 minutes to get enough of a buffer I can skip all commercials.

Funny they don't mention that the exact same arguments were made about the VCR in the 1980s.